Where next?

[niemeyjt]

So M. Barnier is pushing through the Social Security budget using Article 49.3 - a move both right and left disagree with and threaten a no confidence vote in the government.

So what next?

New elections cannot be held for another six or seven months - and wouldn't necessarily change things.

Does Macron resign? Or see out his term with no government and relying on Article 49.3 instead?

If he does go, can elections be held sooner - and if they were would things change?

Sixth Republic?

Seeds to the magic money tree anyone?

Any ideas?

[Quiksilver]

Article 49.3 is becoming fairly routine lately. The world keeps turning.... Couldn't even begin to try to predict how things will unravel

[exile]

A British river, canoe, barbed wire and lack of paddle spring to mind.

[Biloute]

If Macron resigns, the President of the Senate (Gérard Larcher) would act as interim president while waiting for new presidential elections within a maximum period of 35 days. Once elected, the new president can dissolve parliament but not before 1 year after the previous dissolution, i.e. before June 2025. Until that date, he will have to manage to govern with a parliament that does not offer him a comfortable majority. There is no doubt that the government will be censured tomorrow or the day after. Indeed, Mr. Le Pen will submit her motion and vote for the left's, so Barnier will bite the dust...
What's next ?
- Macron asks Barnier to stay but to choose new ministers and review his budget: no budget will satisfy everyone because parliament is divided into 3 with little common core
- Macron chooses a new Prime Minister: if he is left-wing, he will be censured by Le Pen; if he is right-wing, he will be by Mélenchon and if he is from the center, he will be by both...
- Macron resigns and we have to choose a new President: how will the people vote ? Honestly, who could predict what the French will do ???
- But there is one last option that no one talks about: The Constitution (article 16) provides that the President can decide to take all powers when the country is in danger (war, revolution, health crisis, regime crisis, etc.). In short, a step towards dictatorship... Let's not forget that in 2022, Macron was re-elected just after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine because the people took refuge under the President's wings like chicks under the hen's wings. He didn't even deign to campaign... Will he be tempted by article 16 under the pretext of this political crisis ?
Whether you like Marine Le Pen or not, she represents 11 million votes cast and we can understand the fact that she uses the only power she has left: censorship. Indeed:
- during the recent legislative elections, the unnatural alliances between the left and the center blocked her party which got fewer MPs than she hoped
- in the same way, she did not obtain any essential position in Parliament
- finally, the judges are trying to make her ineligible in the future (2027)
Every hunter knows to be wary of a wounded animal...
Our life is likely to be interesting in the coming weeks...

[niemeyjt]

But there is one last option that no one talks about: The Constitution (article 16) provides that the President can decide to take all powers when the country is in danger (war, revolution, health crisis, regime crisis, etc.). In short, a step towards dictatorship.

Fascinating thought.. Thank you.

But would this make the GJ look like a walk in the park?

[Biloute]

But there is one last option that no one talks about: The Constitution (article 16) provides that the President can decide to take all powers when the country is in danger (war, revolution, health crisis, regime crisis, etc.). In short, a step towards dictatorship.

Fascinating thought.. Thank you.

But would this make the GJ look like a walk in the park?

Sorry for my wrong mother tongue: what do you mean by GJ ?

[Quiksilver]

Gilets Jaunes? Shame on you, Biloute! Fancy a born and bred Frenchman not recognising an acronym

[Biloute]

Gilets Jaunes? Shame on you, Biloute! Fancy a born and bred Frenchman not recognising an acronym

Ha ! Ha ! Stupid I am... I was desperately searching English words with G and J ! Maybe I watch too much of Pointless on the BBC

[Blaze]

Don't worry @Biloute, I had to think for a minute about GJ - but I've never heard of Pointless But then we don't have UK TV

The Constitution (article 16) provides that the President can decide to take all powers when the country is in danger (war, revolution, health crisis, regime crisis, etc.). In short, a step towards dictatorship

It's not surprising that this isn't talked about - there are other countries where a President has given himself absolute power and their countries have not been in danger : Thailand, Russia, now the US and Turkey isn't far behind ...... I doubt the French would stand for that - it's something that would put France in danger ... of revolution.
Another aspect of dictatorship comes when there is no separation of powers, i.e. when the President controls the courts and I can't see Macron doing that. Article 49.3 has not been used as much under his government as it was under Mitterand and his PM Michel Rocard (28 times between 1988 and 1991) but Elisabeth Borne used it 19 times.

[MAD87]

Whatever happens, it is / will be a mess. Pity the public sector employees whose pay has bee frozen for years, the enterprises who are threatened with swwingeing S S increases and pensioners, etc. Plus higher taxes generally for tout le monde. Rampant inflation for all.

Getting rid of all the 300+ "commissions" (talking heads), which cost 80Bn p/a, would save the day.