Weather ... again

[Polly]

We had rain in the night, bot a huge amount but it was lovely to wake up to cooler, damp conditions and smell the petrichor.

It hasn’t made any difference to the straw that used to be lawns but I expect the weeds will grow even more.

After various health problems and several heatwaves I enjoyed being out in the garden cutting back many brambles before sitting out enjoying the garden despite so many shrubs suffering from the drought.

Two very large and one smaller Cornus alba 'Elegantissima' bushes are suffering badly - I’m hoping that as they’ve made it through heatwaves in previous years that they’ll survive this one - I planted one of them about 40 years ago and another is only a year or two younger.

A couple of Acer palmatum atropurpureums are also suffering like the Elegantissimas, the leaves of both both are turning brown and crinkly though the green acers are dealing better with the heat which I’m glad about - one of those I also planted about 40 years ago.

I also noticed today that a clematis montana that grows through the large apple tree has died.

[Bayleaf]

It's raining! It wasn't forecast, but this is lovely, slow, steady rain that'll certainly cheer up some flagging plants.

[Lori]

Yes woke to light rain. Was ready to go for a swim, but will wait til the rain stops. Says it should turn to cloud cover at 9h00.

[MAD87]

I haven't dared look at my acers! The one outside the mairie looks fine, but I suppose tyhey've been watering it.

[Char]

We've had several days of it being cold windy with lots of rain, now it's hot again. Very strange year so far. Mind you the last time it was very hot for several weeks we ended up having 4 ft of snow and temperatures down to minus 15 the following winter - I hope it doesn't do that again this winter.

[Blaze]

Nice temperatures here after a huge downpour on Saturday - we were "assisting" at a dog training course. They ask people to come along to help socialise a dog etc. We all got absolutely soaked, but at least it wasn't cold ! The car smelled of soggy doggies

[exile]

I think you may well be right to be concerned, @Char .

I record our daytime high temperatures. Unfortunately I have not recorded the lows nor what the weather is actually like - sunny, rainy, snowy etc.

But from what I do have as data, I have done an analysis. The end of this year and next are supposed to be influenced by a very strong El Niño event.

The last two times we had strong El Niño events were 2015/6 and 2023/4.

I have compared the daytime highs for those years with the average temperature taken from 2003 onwards. I have recorded this on a daily basis, presented below. Overall the actual temperatures versus the average, show that for the years, there was little difference from a "normal" year. However, if you scan down the data, you will find significant periods where day after day the temperatures are below average. I don't suggest you look at every single number - too much information as they say

This strongly suggests that we can expect some prolonged cold periods over the winter.



date DELTA 16 DELTA 24
01-Jan 3 2
02-Jan 4 1
03-Jan 1 4
04-Jan 3 5
05-Jan 3 2
06-Jan 1 -2
07-Jan 4 -4
08-Jan 6 -10
09-Jan 4 -7
10-Jan 4 -2
11-Jan 3 -2
12-Jan 0 -2
13-Jan -3 -1
14-Jan -1 3
15-Jan -5 1
16-Jan -6 0
17-Jan -5 4
18-Jan -6 4
19-Jan -2 -7
20-Jan -1 -4
21-Jan -2 2
22-Jan 1 -0
23-Jan 2 3
24-Jan 7 6
25-Jan 7 8
26-Jan 9 8
27-Jan 8 4
28-Jan 6 6
29-Jan 4 4
30-Jan 4 5
31-Jan 6 6
01-Feb 5 4
02-Feb 6 4
03-Feb 2 9
04-Feb -1 5
05-Feb 5 6
06-Feb 4 5
07-Feb 2 6
08-Feb 5 6
09-Feb 3 3
10-Feb -3 3
11-Feb 1 3
12-Feb 0 0
13-Feb 3 3
14-Feb -0 8
15-Feb -5 5
16-Feb -8 4
17-Feb -4 2
18-Feb -5 5
19-Feb -4 3
20-Feb 1 1
21-Feb 8 4
22-Feb 3 1
23-Feb 2 -0
24-Feb 2 -3
25-Feb -0 -1
26-Feb -1 1
27-Feb -2 -0
28-Feb -2 -1
29-Feb -4 2
01-Mar -2 3
02-Mar 1 -0
03-Mar -4 -3
04-Mar -1 -3
05-Mar -2 -1
06-Mar -4 -2
07-Mar -3 1
08-Mar -7 -3
09-Mar -5 -3
10-Mar -4 -2
11-Mar -4 -3
12-Mar -5 -3
13-Mar -5 3
14-Mar -0 2
15-Mar -1 5
16-Mar -10 0
17-Mar -6 4
18-Mar -1 3
19-Mar 1 5
20-Mar -1 4
21-Mar -4 7
22-Mar -1 7
23-Mar -2 1
24-Mar -1 -4
25-Mar -5 -1
26-Mar 5 -5
27-Mar 1 -0
28-Mar 3 -2
29-Mar 3 -0
30-Mar 6 -2
31-Mar 4 -3
01-Apr -1 1
02-Apr -1 -0
03-Apr 3 2
04-Apr 5 3
05-Apr 2 2
06-Apr 4 2
07-Apr 3 5
08-Apr 2 4
09-Apr 2 -7
10-Apr 1 -5
11-Apr -1 1
12-Apr 1 5
13-Apr -1 8
14-Apr 1 8
15-Apr 1 4
16-Apr 3 -2
17-Apr -3 -6
18-Apr -6 -10
19-Apr 1 -2
20-Apr 5 -8
21-Apr 0 -9
22-Apr -3 -11
23-Apr -4 -9
24-Apr -10 -10
25-Apr -7 -8
26-Apr -6 -7
27-Apr -6 -4
28-Apr -2 -5
29-Apr -2 -3
30-Apr -6 -1
01-May -10 -0
02-May -4 -9
03-May -3 -2
04-May -1 -3
05-May 3 1
06-May 2 -5
07-May 2 -6
08-May -1 -3
09-May -3 -0
10-May -0 3
11-May -3 2
12-May -3 5
13-May -4 2
14-May -1 -3
15-May -3 0
16-May -2 -3
17-May -1 -1
18-May -0 -2
19-May -5 0
20-May -1 -1
21-May 3 -4
22-May -3 -6
23-May -9 -4
24-May -6 -5
25-May -3 -3
26-May 0 -1
27-May 3 -3
28-May 1 -3
29-May -5 -3
30-May -4 -2
31-May -11 -11
01-Jun -7 -4
02-Jun -6 -6
03-Jun -3 -4
04-Jun -2 -2
05-Jun -3 2
06-Jun -1 0
07-Jun 2 2
08-Jun -1 2
09-Jun -1 -1
10-Jun -0 -3
11-Jun -6 -3
12-Jun -3 -6
13-Jun -3 -5
14-Jun -4 -5
15-Jun -5 -3
16-Jun -7 -1
17-Jun -7 -1
18-Jun -10 -1
19-Jun -8 1
20-Jun -5 -4
21-Jun -1 -5
22-Jun 2 -7
23-Jun 3 -7
24-Jun 2 -4
25-Jun -4 -0
26-Jun -5 -2
27-Jun -5 3
28-Jun -1 3
29-Jun -1 -1
30-Jun -2 -3
01-Jul 0 -4
02-Jul -3 -7
03-Jul -3 -6
04-Jul 0 -4
05-Jul -1 -0
06-Jul -2 -4
07-Jul 2 -5
08-Jul 4 -0
09-Jul 2 1
10-Jul 5 -1
11-Jul -2 1
12-Jul -6 -3
13-Jul -9 -6
14-Jul -11 1
15-Jul -8 0
16-Jul -5 -2
17-Jul -0 -2
18-Jul 1 -0
19-Jul 3 3
20-Jul 4 3
21-Jul 1 -6
22-Jul -5 -3
23-Jul -6 -1
24-Jul -5 -2
25-Jul -2 -2
26-Jul -1 2
27-Jul -2 3
28-Jul -1 3
29-Jul 1 4
30-Jul 2 8
31-Jul -6 6
01-Aug -5 3
02-Aug -2 0
03-Aug 2 -0
04-Aug 3 2
05-Aug -8 1
06-Aug -5 4
07-Aug -2 3
08-Aug 1 1
09-Aug -6 3
10-Aug -7 5
11-Aug -8 5
12-Aug -4 3
13-Aug -1 5
14-Aug 3 -1
15-Aug 3 -1
16-Aug 1 -0
17-Aug 1 1
18-Aug -2 -5
19-Aug 2 -3
20-Aug -6 1
21-Aug -5 -3
22-Aug -3 -0
23-Aug 2 4
24-Aug 5 2
25-Aug 5 -6
26-Aug 5 -4
27-Aug 3 2
28-Aug 4 2
29-Aug -2 7
30-Aug 1 6
31-Aug 3 4
01-Sep 3 4
02-Sep 4 2
03-Sep 4 3
04-Sep 4 -3
05-Sep -0 -7
06-Sep 0 -3
07-Sep 3 -0
08-Sep 5 -3
09-Sep 3 -4
10-Sep 2 -4
11-Sep 3 -5
12-Sep 6 -10
13-Sep 4 -10
14-Sep 0 -8
15-Sep -2 -5
16-Sep -3 -5
17-Sep -7 -5
18-Sep -7 -2
19-Sep -3 1
20-Sep -3 -1
21-Sep -5 -2
22-Sep 0 -3
23-Sep 0 -1
24-Sep 3 -2
25-Sep 3 -0
26-Sep -0 1
27-Sep 0 -2
28-Sep 3 -7
29-Sep 3 -3
30-Sep 1 -2
01-Oct -2 -1
02-Oct -3 -4
03-Oct -2 -4
04-Oct -1 -7
05-Oct 0 -4
06-Oct -3 -3
07-Oct -2 -1
08-Oct -4 -2
09-Oct -6 -1
10-Oct -7 -3
11-Oct -7 -3
12-Oct -5 -2
13-Oct -4 2
14-Oct -3 5
15-Oct -1 6
16-Oct -1 1
17-Oct -1 2
18-Oct -1 -1
19-Oct -4 0
20-Oct -5 3
21-Oct -5 4
22-Oct -3 3
23-Oct 1 2
24-Oct 3 0
25-Oct 1 0
26-Oct -1 0
27-Oct -1 2
28-Oct 2 5
29-Oct 2 5
30-Oct 1 3
31-Oct 1 6
01-Nov -0 7
02-Nov -0 2
03-Nov -3 7
04-Nov -0 7
05-Nov 3 6
06-Nov -4 6
07-Nov -6 4
08-Nov -6 6
09-Nov -4 5
10-Nov -4 4
11-Nov -5 -2
12-Nov -3 -3
13-Nov -2 -2
14-Nov -6 -3
15-Nov -4 -1
16-Nov -0 2
17-Nov 4 3
18-Nov 0 -1
19-Nov -0 2
20-Nov 2 -5
21-Nov 5 -4
22-Nov 4 -6
23-Nov 5 1
24-Nov 0 1
25-Nov 1 2
26-Nov 2 4
27-Nov 2 5
28-Nov -4 8
29-Nov -0 4
30-Nov 1 6
01-Dec 1 9
02-Dec 2 10
03-Dec 2 -1
04-Dec 1 -3
05-Dec 3 3
06-Dec 3 5
07-Dec 3 2
08-Dec 5 -3
09-Dec 7 -3
10-Dec 6 -3
11-Dec 4 -2
12-Dec 2 2
13-Dec -3 -0
14-Dec 3 -1
15-Dec 3 -2
16-Dec 3 3
17-Dec 3 6
18-Dec -1 9
19-Dec -3 2
20-Dec -2 -3
21-Dec -5 1
22-Dec 4 1
23-Dec 1 -5
24-Dec 3 -2
25-Dec 3 0
26-Dec 3 2
27-Dec 0 8
28-Dec 4 9
29-Dec 4 6
30-Dec 1 6
31-Dec 0 5